Sent in by an anonymous LATOC reader from the New England area:
Hello Mr. Savinar - After examination of the data concerning Hubbert's Peak in individual countries, I have come up with a theory which might be helpful when thinking about the probable effects of Hubbert's Peak on a world-wide basis.
My theory states that when a country reaches that point in crude oil production which is known as Hubbert’s Peak (i.e., that is when fifty percent of eventual crude oil production has been reached), then within three to six years this country will experience moderate to severe economic, social, and political turmoil. The degree and timing of this turmoil depends upon the following factors: the dependence of the individual country upon its own crude oil production to meet its energy needs and to subsidize consumer imports; the rate of relative decline in production; degree of difficulty encountered in replacing missing energy inputs; and the degree to which country had prepared beforehand for this inevitable geological event.
Examples:
- United States: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1970; oil crisis followed three years later in 1973.
- Soviet Union: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; dissolution of country followed in 1991.
- Iran: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1974; revolution followed in 1979.
- Indonesia: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1991; financial crisis followed in 1997.
- Iraq: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; invasion of Kuwait followed in 1991.
Using Mr. Matthew Simmons' educated guess as December, 2005 as being the world peak, then we could begin to expect to experience these adverse effects as early as 2008.
