Energy Solutions Conference:
Outline of My Talk
These are my notes for my talk. This is not intended to be quoted as you'll see a lot of short hand type stuff. This is what I'll take with me to the podium to remind myself of the points I want to make. Note that I will only be speaking for half an hour so I will likely not get to cover all (or even most) of these topics:
1. Should I be writing my elected officials about Peak Oil?
First of all, let's get clear about the state of the world these days: activism doesn't work. If it did, Bush wouldn't be president and we wouldn't be in Iraq. Money makes the rules, particularly in the US. It always has. $5.00 or $10.00 gallon gas isn't going to change that fundamental, if anything it will reinforce at as high energy prices tend to redistribute money upwards in society. Remember this is a country that was established to serve the interests of the upper 1% of society. That hasn't changed. Those are the rules whether you like or not, for better or worse. You want to win you need to play by the rules cause the game ain't going to change even if the price of gas to drive to the ballpark goes up.
If you're writing to your elected officials and you don't have a lot of money it means you don't understand how our system works. Time for you to get a clue. People think they elect their officials to represent them. Wrong. The upper 1% control the public discourse through the newspapers, think tanks, college endowments, etc. First amendment doesn't exist to protect your speech. It exists so people with $$$ can control the public debate without having to spend time and money kicking the little people around through police state tactics. Instead of spending money to put boots on your neck, the rich just go out and buy more speech while the little guy yells into the wind. Much more efficient and effective means of control, the founders do deserve a lot of credit for this despite it's inequities: it sure is a lot better than the much less pleasant for all parties involved alternative(s). The alpha males in any group of primates (which us humans are) will always seek to consolidate their power. The founders set up a system where the alphas would mostly battle using money. Not pleasant or fair but better than the alternative which is the alpha males using war as the default/primary way to consolidate power. See Confessions of Economic Hitman: first economics and money is used, then war. Better than the alternative which is just to go straight to war.
The elected officials are hired liars albeit they are hired indirectly via the selection (aka the election) process which is entirely controlled by money. Whoever's got the most money can afford the most effective professional liars. The election, if the votes are even counted, is just to see which candidate is better at making people feel good. For the most part the corporations will get what they want regardless of who is elected. Difference between talk and action. The liars (elected officials) tell the people what makes them feel good, then they turn around and do the bidding of the people/corporations with the $$$. All that your letter writing is going to do is help them and their staff craft a message that makes you and others feel good. While you're busy feeling good because your politician has crafted the exact message you want to hear, he/she is busy passing and funding legislation that will be in the interests of whoever has the money.
If you want to acquire social capital among your activist friends by being able to brag that you write to your elected officials, then have at it. If you want to actually effect change, write to people who control the money in your community and persuade them that your ideas are in their best interests. Then they will make sure the elected officials take the appropriate action. Of course, there is the possibility that their interests may not be your interests.
Examples of this in action from opposite ends of the political spectrum:
Kunstler/Rainwater/Bush "addicted to oil" in the SOTU: Because of letter writing or because Richard R. was concerned? Kunstler metaphorically wrote a letter (his book) to billionaire Rainwater -> Rainwater became concerned -> Bush started talking about oil addiction.
Solar program in Sebastopol, CA.: Rich hippies (average home in Sebastopol = $760,000) wanted Solar Sebastopol program, they got it.
Resolution in San Francisco: do we really think that whatever legislation/programs get city funding are going to go against the interests of whoever controls the $$$. Imperative that you convince whoever has the $$$ in your community that your agenda is in their interests. Otherwise it's going to get ignored at best or squashed at worst.
2. What's the most important thing in regards to preparing for Peak Oil?
In the long run, nobody knows. All bets are off as this is an unprecedented phenomenon and completely uncharted territory in which most of the X-factors and unknowns are more likely to work against us than for us. If Kunstler/Lundberg turn out to be remotely accurate, I'd say go rent Mad Max. If James Lovelock turns out to be correct, go rent Waterworld. If you live in California, it's Terminator but you already knew that.
In the short-to-medium run, assuming we don't get a catastrophically rapid collapse (which is a possibility) the most important thing is money. People in the Peak Oil movement don't like to talk about this because many (most?) have come to Peak Oil with preexisting, often times anti-market agendas which originated in various counter cultures. Like it or not, money is the #1 determinant of how this will play out for you in the short-to-medium run. Evidence that money is the most important thing in the short-to-medium run:
A. This conference and others like it
You can't attend peak oil conferences, educate yourself and others about the problem unless you have the time and money to do so. Example: I can't afford to go to most conferences unless I'm a speaker and thus allowed to stay for free and reimbursed for my expenses. The fact that one of the most notable figures in the movement can't afford to go to the most important conferences should underscore the importance of money.
B. The cost of relocating
Moving takes money but you probably already knew that.
C. The cost of classes to learn skills
Permaculture, wilderness survival, small scale energy production classes all take money and oftentimes quite a bit of it.
D. The cost of land, of housing etc.
Land and housing ain't free, but you probably already knew that.
E. Paying off debt
can't do it without money.
F. Buying gold
Stuff costs $600/ounce.
G. Won't the banking system collapse and then money will be worthless?
Quite possibly and perhaps probably. But until that happens, $$$ is the #1 determinant of how this plays out for you. In the long run, nobody knows. Could be money or land or ammunition or solar cells or skills or seed or hand tools or who knows what.
2. Besides money, what else is important?
In no particular order:
A. Health.
B. Luck.
C. Friends.
3. What's the #1 thing I can do to make my community more prepared for Peak Oil?
Start a business that is likely to survive or thrive in age of expensive energy and then hire some young men between the ages of 16 and 25 or so. A large body of underemployed or unemployed young men will go a long ways toward rendering your other efforts at relocaliztion and preparation null and void. If they don't have jobs you won't have a garden for very long. They must be either gainfully employed or controlled via force. Either find jobs for them or start arming yourselves to defend what you got from them. No economic opportunities for the young men in your community = your community gets burned to the ground. Prepare to employ them or control them.
4. Okay, so what type of business are more likely than others to sustain themselves?
Anything in:
Recycling
Renewable energy
Alternative and complimentary forms of health care (acupuncture/chiropractic etc)
Alternative forms of transportation (bike shops)
Bankruptcy law (for you attorneys)
Gasoline siphoning (solve fuel shortages the old fashioned way: steal it from others!)
There are probably others but the above have done well the last few years as energy prices have gone up. It's reasonable to think they will continue to do well as energy prices continue to go up. More bikes, for instance, were sold last year than ever before. Alternative and complementary forms medicine are exploding in popularity and will probably continue to as our petrochemical based system of medicine continues to fall apart, solar and wind companies are doing business hand over fist. Bankruptcy attorneys are doing great these days. (Que Dr. Evil style laugh here)
5. I'm in tons of debt and everybody says "get out of debt." I don't think I can do that within the next few years. I feel helpless.
Don't know what to tell you other than "you're not alone." I'd be lying to you if I said I had any bright ideas about what you can do that are realistic and not pie-in-the-sky. If you think of anything (legal) email them to me and I'll post em on my site. Otherwise, the best I can say is cross your fingers and hope things hang together for as long possible.
6. I have a medical condition that requires prescription medication. Growing herbs is not a realistic option for my condition. What can I do if systems of transport/distribution begin to break down?
A question I dread. Nobody addresses this because nobody wants to deal with the obviously grim implications. Don't know what to tell you other than stock up as best you can and talk to your doctor. There may be legal issues involved in that, I'm not advocating you break the law. Maybe reach out to other people who have the same problem and you can figure something out that I haven't thought of. Again, hope that things hang together for as long as possible, maybe you or somebody else will think of something. If so email it to me and I'll post it on my site.
7. Are some people better off not knowing about the severity of the problems we're facing?
Quite possibly. "You want to know the truth or you want to be able to pay your bills?" The emotional shock of learning about just how much trouble we're in can be so great that many people are unable to function in their daily lives. Some have had near nervous breakdowns. Whether such people are better off knowing is a question I don't have a definitive answer to.
8. Should I be getting a gun?/What about community defense?
At some point, yes. (I still haven't gotten one.) Whenever I mention this somebody brings up the philosophies of Martin Luther king without realizing that the conditions are totally different today and will be even more different in the future then they were during King's time. During the 1950s and 1960s, this country (and the world) were in the midst of a fossil fuel fiesta. Per-capita energy availability increased by a whopping 50% during that time. We were arguing/fighting over making sure everybody got a seat at the table and that nobody got shoved to the back of the line at the buffet table.
From 2010-to-2030, we are likely to see a drop in per-capita energy availability of 50% even if all the alternatives are maximized (which they are unlikely to be). The fossil fuel fiesta will have become a fossil fuel famine. Instead of arguing over who gets to sit where at the buffet table, people will be fighting over the scraps out in the trash heap in the alley.
In this context whose thinking do you think is more applicable: Martin Luther King or Harriet Tubman who was armed at all times. Who would you rather have at your side as the petroleum economy collapses? Whose thinking seems more appropriate for the landscape we'll be navigating?
And enough about Ghandi already! Anytime I bring up issues of gun ownership or security and community defense somebody tosses out "MLK and Ghandi, MLK and Ghandi!!!" Enough already, time for you to do a bit of research. Ghandi was pro-apartheid and a major racist. India's caste system is a form of apartheid and he wanted to maintain it. Yes, he wanted to make sure the Dalit caste stayed in their place. That's what the hunger strike was about: making sure they weren't given a right to vote in the 1932 Indian constitution. He only cared about the independence of the upper castes. That's why the Dalit's hated him and still do. If Ghandi is your hero you need to google yourself a clue. Specifically, google "Ghandi and the bambata rebellion" or "Ghandi and the dalits" if you want to know the truth about your hero. So please, stop it with the knee jerk "Ghandi, Ghandi Ghandi" whenever somebody brings up issues of gun ownership or community and personal defense post-peak oil.
9. Why do some people accept that we're headed for unprecedented problems but so many others remain in denial?
Your subconscious only cares about improving your chances of survival. It does not care about the truth. That's why so many people are so willing to believe things that are so obviously not true. Lots of examples of this going around today, so many that I don't even have to name them. Just think of your favorite but keep it to your self as there is a good chance somebody in the room believes just that!
Your subconscious will only select things as "true" if it perceives that doing so will increase your chances of survival. Short-term survival is prioritized over long-term survival since you have to survive the short term to have a chance to survive the long term. The most important thing to short-term survival is teamwork. The most important thing to teamwork is shared beliefs/assumptions about what we're trying to accomplish. This was true for a team of hunters on the African Savannah chasing down a mastodon 25,000 years ago is true for people today. Anything that puts you at odds with the rest of the tribe/team will be denied because it lowers your ability to function as a team which reduces your chances of short term survival. Example:
Bob finds out about Peak Oil in all of its grimness -> Now Bob can't socialize/network with his coworkers as smoothly and effectively as before because all they talk about is stuff like their Mcmansions, their SUVs, their wives' boob jobs, their kid's IPODs, etc. -> Bob is now a less well integrated and effective member of his team -> Bob's team is now not as effective as before because not everybody is on the same page -> Bob suffers
The subconscious naturally wants to avoid this so unless there is some type of overriding short term benefit to understanding this stuff, it will be deleted from the brain's radar screen.
This is why so many of the people in the peak oil movement come to peak oil with pre existing agendas. Prior to learning about this they had a certain agenda, perhaps they were opposed to cars, to suburbia, to capitalism, to civilization, to whatever. The brain selects this meme as "true" because doing so will (unlike Bob in the hypothetical above) allow them to promote the interests of their tribe (the anti-car tribe, the pro-solar tribe, pro-ethanol tribe, the pro-permaculture tribe, the anti-suburbia tribe, etc.)
Then there's the investors who see this as a great opportunity to make money and then there's the folks who simply want to acquire political or social power and the brain sees this issue as a great vehicle in which to do that. What does the average person stand to gain by understanding these issues in all their grimness? Usually not much since their living, their friendships, their political affiliations etc. depend on them not understanding it.
10. How do I deal with Peak Oil depression?
A common reaction. Humans evolved in the context of a constantly increasing energy supply. Ever since we discovered fire the energy supply has been increasing. All of our religions, philosophies, ideologies, etc. were developed at a time in our specie's history where the energy pie was getting bigger. Even our neural wiring and genetic tendencies evolved in this context. Why, for instance, are women universally attracted to men with intelligence and senses of humor? Because those traits help you acquire more energy. Intelligence helps a man figure out new and better ways to capture energy while a sense of humor is great in anything requiring teamwork such as hunting food. So women who were attracted to men with intelligence and humor (rather than Neanderthals) tended to have children who would be better provided for. The attraction to humor/intelligence tended to get passed on more than the attraction to a barbarian or neanderthal type guy because the children of the woman who was attracted to a funny and smart guy typically got more energy (food) than the children of her less selective counterpart.
Point is: everything thing about us evolved out of pursuit of ever greater supplies of energy! The human brain is like a computer that was designed to figure out how to capture greater and greater stores of energy. The implications of a constantly decreasing supply of energy are like a software program the computer was not created to handle. Stick the new software program into the old computer and the computer will crash because it was not developed to run this new software program.
Since our brains were not designed/evolved to handle this program, it is by definition depressing if one truly understands what we're facing. The computer just wants to shut down.
So how to overcome this? Well your emotions evolved to help you survive. Think of them as your evolutionary compass or evolutionary "stick and carrot." Or, if you don't believe in evolution think of them as "God's gifts." Point remains the same either way. We think of depression as a maladaptive trait hence the massive number of prescriptions for anti-depressants in this country But it's not maladaptive. It's a signal just like fear. Fear tells you there is something you need to do or find out that you are currently not doing or do not know. Depression shuts you down to prevent you from expending energy on endeavors unlikely to improve your chances of survival or unlikely to have a positive EROEI. Caveman/famine example. The depressed caveman would sit at home and wait for the famine to pass. The eternal optimist might go looking for food even though there was none and end up burning up his bodyfat stores and then dying of starvation. Meanwhile the depressed caveman would have conserved enough bodyfat that he might survive till the famine passed.
The "solution" to the depression you encounter is two fold:
A. Stop thinking about it. Seriously this is an inherently depressing topic. You can not read about it or think about it without becoming depressed. Confine your peak oil reading to perhaps one day a week.
B. Find something to do that you feel will improve your chances of survival. Can be a hobby, a side business, anything. Your genetic-subconscious axis will take notice and reward you with some dopamine. "Oh my God he's actually doing something right let's release the dopamine so he does it again!" your genetic-subconscious axis will think to itself.
11. What's Matt Savinar's Plan?
1. Expand my business so I can get enough money to buy land and move to a more sustainable location.
2. Pray we have enough time left for me to do this.
3. Distract myself from this rather anxiety-provoking topic with things like celebrity scandals.
